Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — Statistical Breakdown

Events/UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2/Saint Denis vs. Pimblett

UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2·JUL 11, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVLightweightMain card · 3 rounds

Red corner

BenoîtSaint Denis

Age30

Reach73"

StanceSouthpaw

Ranking#5

Lightweight · 3 × 5

Blue corner

PaddyPimblett

GB-ENG

Age31

Reach73"

StanceOrthodox

Ranking#6

Weight class

Lightweight

Bout slot

Main card

Format

3 × 5 min

Bout

Two elite grapplers with inverted mat roles — one relentless wrestler, one chin that has never cracked; the question is whether the finisher can close before the fight reaches water he has never seen.

This is a statistical breakdown of publicly available fighter data. It is not a betting tip, not a guaranteed outcome, and not a recommendation to place any wager. Any decisions you make are your own.

The verdict

The read.

Statistical favorite, confidence and the confidence that frames it. The full why sits to the left.

Apex Scouter favorite · reviewed by analyst

the favorite

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Criteria met1 met

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Confidence0.0 / 10

Confidence reflects the strength of the statistical separation between the two fighters — not a betting signal.

Verdict confidence

YELLOW · MODERATE

Moderate statistical separation — a defensible lean with a live underdog path.

The verdict is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Context

The surrounding read.

The factors that frame the matchup beyond the metrics.

Strength

Strength of schedule

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Camps

Camp assessment

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Condition

Physical condition

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Vulnerability

KO vulnerability

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Key edges

Where the fight is decided.

The decisive factors behind the call, in plain terms.

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Context & key edges are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

The matrix

38-metric breakdown.

Grouped by weight. Lit side = the fighter holding the edge on that metric. Values are shown as reported — no fabricated magnitudes.

Saint DenisMetric · edgePimblett

Critical 7highest-weight metrics

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Important 17click to expand

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Dolore nostrudEven

Ut loremEven

Dolor consecteturEven

Veniam utEven

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Do adipiscingEven

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Sit ametEven

Amet aliquaEven

Enim minimEven

Ut sedEven

Enim magnaEven

Exercitation elitEven

Consectetur enimEven

Incididunt doEven

Veniam ipsumEven

Contextual 14click to expand

Incididunt exercitationEven

Dolor ametEven

Tempor laboreEven

Quis ipsumEven

Sed enimEven

Ad temporEven

Dolor enimEven

Elit quisEven

Et utEven

Sed magnaEven

Minim elitEven

Enim laboreEven

Ipsum utEven

Eiusmod doloreEven

38 of 38 metrics · 7 critical · 17 important · 14 contextualValues shown as reported

The 38-metric matrix is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Style & risk

Style matchup & upset risk.

The stylistic axes, then the two questions that could break the call.

Style matchup

Saint Denis (red) · Pimblett (blue) — pips scale to the larger value

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Risks for the favorite

Favorite

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How the underdog can win

Underdog

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Game plan

How the favorite wins.

The favorite's two routes to victory, most likely first.

Primary path

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Secondary path

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Style, risk & game plan are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Apex Scouter · reviewed by analyst