Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida — Statistical Breakdown

Events/UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2/Pinas vs. Almeida

UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2·JUL 11, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVMiddleweightEarly prelims · 3 rounds

Red corner

DamianPinas

Age24

Reach79.5"

Stanceorthodox

Rankingunranked

Middleweight · 3 × 5

Blue corner

CesarAlmeida

Age38

Reach74.0"

Stanceorthodox

Rankingunranked

Weight class

Middleweight

Bout slot

Early prelims

Format

3 × 5 min

Bout

#11

A regional knockout artist who has never seen deep water meets a former kickboxing world champion who has never been stopped.

This is a statistical breakdown of publicly available fighter data. It is not a betting tip, not a guaranteed outcome, and not a recommendation to place any wager. Any decisions you make are your own.

The verdict

The read.

Statistical favorite, confidence and the confidence that frames it. The full why sits to the left.

Apex Scouter favorite · reviewed by analyst

the favorite

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Criteria met2 met

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Confidence0.0 / 10

Confidence reflects the strength of the statistical separation between the two fighters — not a betting signal.

Verdict confidence

YELLOW · MODERATE

Moderate statistical separation — a defensible lean with a live underdog path.

The verdict is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Context

The surrounding read.

The factors that frame the matchup beyond the metrics.

Strength

Strength of schedule

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Camps

Camp assessment

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Condition

Physical condition

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Vulnerability

KO vulnerability

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Key edges

Where the fight is decided.

The decisive factors behind the call, in plain terms.

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Context & key edges are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

The matrix

38-metric breakdown.

Grouped by weight. Lit side = the fighter holding the edge on that metric. Values are shown as reported — no fabricated magnitudes.

PinasMetric · edgeAlmeida

Critical 7highest-weight metrics

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Labore eiusmodEven

Eiusmod ametEven

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Minim laboreEven

Ad quisEven

Important 17click to expand

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Amet laboreEven

Veniam laboreEven

Consectetur enimEven

Nostrud doloreEven

Minim dolorEven

Amet doEven

Tempor minimEven

Magna etEven

Ad eiusmodEven

Ipsum dolorEven

Adipiscing elitEven

Dolor nostrudEven

Tempor doEven

Exercitation minimEven

Veniam ametEven

Minim minimEven

Contextual 14click to expand

Ad incididuntEven

Amet adipiscingEven

Nostrud elitEven

Dolor magnaEven

Eiusmod sitEven

Sed aliquaEven

Lorem utEven

Enim etEven

Tempor adipiscingEven

Consectetur elitEven

Labore consecteturEven

Amet enimEven

Do aliquaEven

Elit sedEven

38 of 38 metrics · 7 critical · 17 important · 14 contextualValues shown as reported

The 38-metric matrix is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Style & risk

Style matchup & upset risk.

The stylistic axes, then the two questions that could break the call.

Style matchup

Pinas (red) · Almeida (blue) — pips scale to the larger value

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ENIM DO

TEMPOR TEMPOR

QUIS AMET

NOSTRUD INCIDIDUNT

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Risks for the favorite

Favorite

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How the underdog can win

Underdog

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Game plan

How the favorite wins.

The favorite's two routes to victory, most likely first.

Primary path

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Secondary path

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Style, risk & game plan are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Apex Scouter · reviewed by analyst