King Green vs Terrance McKinney — Statistical Breakdown

Events/UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2/Green vs. McKinney

UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2·JUL 11, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVLightweightMain card · 3 rounds

Red corner

KingGreen

Age39

Reach71"

StanceOrthodox

RankingUnranked

Lightweight · 3 × 5

Blue corner

TerranceMcKinney

Age31

Reach73.5"

StanceSwitch

RankingUnranked

Weight class

Lightweight

Bout slot

Main card

Format

3 × 5 min

Bout

Two finish-or-be-finished lightweights with crackable chins collide — the only real question is whether it ends in the first round or reaches the deep water one of them has never seen.

This is a statistical breakdown of publicly available fighter data. It is not a betting tip, not a guaranteed outcome, and not a recommendation to place any wager. Any decisions you make are your own.

The verdict

The read.

Statistical favorite, confidence and the confidence that frames it. The full why sits to the left.

Apex Scouter favorite · reviewed by analyst

the favorite

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Criteria met1 met

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Confidence0.0 / 10

Confidence reflects the strength of the statistical separation between the two fighters — not a betting signal.

Verdict confidence

YELLOW · MODERATE

Moderate statistical separation — a defensible lean with a live underdog path.

The verdict is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Context

The surrounding read.

The factors that frame the matchup beyond the metrics.

Strength

Strength of schedule

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Camps

Camp assessment

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Condition

Physical condition

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Vulnerability

KO vulnerability

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Key edges

Where the fight is decided.

The decisive factors behind the call, in plain terms.

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Context & key edges are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

The matrix

38-metric breakdown.

Grouped by weight. Lit side = the fighter holding the edge on that metric. Values are shown as reported — no fabricated magnitudes.

GreenMetric · edgeMcKinney

Critical 7highest-weight metrics

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Important 17click to expand

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Contextual 14click to expand

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38 of 38 metrics · 7 critical · 17 important · 14 contextualValues shown as reported

The 38-metric matrix is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Style & risk

Style matchup & upset risk.

The stylistic axes, then the two questions that could break the call.

Style matchup

Green (red) · McKinney (blue) — pips scale to the larger value

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Risks for the favorite

Favorite

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How the underdog can win

Underdog

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Game plan

How the favorite wins.

The favorite's two routes to victory, most likely first.

Primary path

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Secondary path

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Style, risk & game plan are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Apex Scouter · reviewed by analyst