Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III — Statistical Breakdown

Events/UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2/Riley vs. Kamaka III

UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2·JUL 11, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVFeatherweightPrelims · 3 rounds

Red corner

LukeRiley

GB-ENG

Age26

Reach69"

Stanceorthodox

Rankingnone

Featherweight · 3 × 5

Blue corner

KaiKamaka III

Age31

Reach69"

Stanceorthodox

Rankingnone

Weight class

Featherweight

Bout slot

Prelims

Format

3 × 5 min

Bout

A finisher's power and a 17-fight win streak collide with a durable Hawaiian wrestler built to drown prospects in deep water.

This is a statistical breakdown of publicly available fighter data. It is not a betting tip, not a guaranteed outcome, and not a recommendation to place any wager. Any decisions you make are your own.

The verdict

The read.

Statistical favorite, confidence and the confidence that frames it. The full why sits to the left.

Apex Scouter favorite · reviewed by analyst

the favorite

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Criteria met1 met

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Confidence0.0 / 10

Confidence reflects the strength of the statistical separation between the two fighters — not a betting signal.

Verdict confidence

YELLOW · MODERATE

Moderate statistical separation — a defensible lean with a live underdog path.

The verdict is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Context

The surrounding read.

The factors that frame the matchup beyond the metrics.

Strength

Strength of schedule

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Camps

Camp assessment

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Condition

Physical condition

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Vulnerability

KO vulnerability

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Key edges

Where the fight is decided.

The decisive factors behind the call, in plain terms.

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Context & key edges are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

The matrix

38-metric breakdown.

Grouped by weight. Lit side = the fighter holding the edge on that metric. Values are shown as reported — no fabricated magnitudes.

RileyMetric · edgeKamaka III

Critical 7highest-weight metrics

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Important 17click to expand

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Contextual 14click to expand

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38 of 38 metrics · 7 critical · 17 important · 14 contextualValues shown as reported

The 38-metric matrix is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Style & risk

Style matchup & upset risk.

The stylistic axes, then the two questions that could break the call.

Style matchup

Riley (red) · Kamaka III (blue) — pips scale to the larger value

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Risks for the favorite

Favorite

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How the underdog can win

Underdog

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Game plan

How the favorite wins.

The favorite's two routes to victory, most likely first.

Primary path

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Secondary path

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Style, risk & game plan are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Apex Scouter · reviewed by analyst