Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins — Fight Analysis

Events/UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi/Mesquita vs. Mullins

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi·JUN 20, 2026·UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NVWomen's BantamweightPrelims · 3 rounds

Red corner

BiaMesquita

Age35

Reach—

Stanceorthodox

Ranking#14

Women's Bantamweight · 3 × 5

Blue corner

MelissaMullins

GB-ENG

Age34

Reach68"

Stanceorthodox

Rankingunranked

Weight class

Women's Bantamweight

Bout slot

Prelims

Format

3 × 5 min

Bout

The most decorated grappler in the women's game must walk through a bigger puncher's range to reach the takedown that decides everything.

This is a statistical breakdown of publicly available fighter data. It is not a betting tip, not a guaranteed outcome, and not a recommendation to place any wager. Any decisions you make are your own.

The verdict

The read.

Statistical favorite, confidence and the confidence that frames it. The full why sits to the left.

Apex Scouter favorite · reviewed by analyst

the favorite

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Criteria met4 met

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Confidence0.0 / 10

Confidence reflects the strength of the statistical separation between the two fighters — not a win probability and not a betting signal.

Verdict confidence

YELLOW · MODERATE

Moderate statistical separation — a defensible lean with a live underdog path.

The verdict is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Context

The surrounding read.

The factors that frame the matchup beyond the metrics.

Strength of schedule

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Camps

Camp assessment

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Physical condition

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KO vulnerability

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Key edges

Where the fight is decided.

The decisive factors behind the call, in plain terms.

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Context & key edges are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

The matrix

38-metric breakdown.

Grouped by weight. Lit side = the fighter holding the edge on that metric. Values are shown as reported — no fabricated magnitudes.

MesquitaMetric · edgeMullins

Critical 7highest-weight metrics

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Amet eiusmodEven

Important 17click to expand

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Incididunt consecteturEven

Dolor doloreEven

Ipsum adipiscingEven

Et enimEven

Incididunt dolorEven

Dolor temporEven

Quis doloreEven

Dolor temporEven

Sed loremEven

Consectetur nostrudEven

Nostrud dolorEven

Elit ametEven

Dolore doEven

Nostrud elitEven

Amet elitEven

Contextual 14click to expand

Sit exercitationEven

Enim elitEven

Sed elitEven

Ad adipiscingEven

Tempor temporEven

Ipsum quisEven

Ut adEven

Sed laboreEven

Dolore magnaEven

Labore sedEven

Aliqua quisEven

Nostrud doloreEven

Amet magnaEven

Tempor elitEven

38 of 38 metrics · 7 critical · 17 important · 14 contextualValues shown as reported

The 38-metric matrix is locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Style & risk

Style matchup & upset risk.

The stylistic axes, then the two questions that could break the call.

Style matchup

Mesquita (red) · Mullins (blue) — pips scale to the larger value

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Risks for the favorite

Favorite

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How the underdog can win

Underdog

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Game plan

How the favorite wins.

The favorite's two routes to victory, most likely first.

Primary path

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Secondary path

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Style, risk & game plan are locked

Create a free account to unlock previews — go Pro for the full 38-metric breakdown, verdict and game plan.

Apex Scouter · reviewed by analyst